Thursday, August 6, 2009

Stats dork on the loose

So Mr. Peeveme and I were trying to calculate my chances of going into labor on any given day from here on out.

Since 10% of births happen on the due date I guess I have 10% chance of giving birth today....but if I were to give birth today I would probably have started labor last night so...I'm probably out for today.

OK so I have 90% chance of going into labor and having a baby in the next 12 days. (assuming the statistic that 10% of births go beyond 42 weeks is accurate...which I doubt but that's another story). So if we assume an equal probability each day we get 7.5% chance per day. But it wont be the same each day...the chances will increase each day past the due date. So, in true statistical dork fashion I have calculated the following.

Due date = 7.5% chance
+1 past due date (Friday) = 8.1%
+2 = 9%
+3 = 10%
+4 = 11.25%
+5 = 12.8%
+6 = 15%
+7 = 18%
+8 = 22.5%
+9 = 30%
+10 = 50%
+11 = 90%

My methodology is admittedly crude but it works for me.


Riley said...

I hated statistics in school - can't wrap my head around all that, but regardless - I do know that it will be soon!! Very soon - yay!

areyoukiddingme said...

Happy due date! I hope Bambina decides to make her way out soon!

Melissia said...

As a retired labor and delivery nurse I can tell you that there are ways to naturally increase your odds of going into labor and there are websites that discuss the various methods. The biggest one is of course sex, but the deal is that you cannot jump up and run to the bathroom as most women do as there are prostaglandins in the semen that ripen the cervix and orgasm causes the uterus to contract. Of course this is not medical advice and you can talk to your MD about ways, as well, especially if you have an older MD, the younger ones don't seem to know about any of the home remedies, but the midwives do!
Some of the stuff is very out there, like inducing diarrhea, which I would never do, but use to be routine (how unpleasant, not to mention unhealthy), but nipple stimulation actually releases oxytocin which is the natural hormone that causes contractions and use to be used by midwives to jumpstart a stalled labor back in the day before Pitocin was available.
Check out some of the websites if you are interested, very good reading. Just look under thing like "natural ways to induce labor", etc.
Be warned, some of it is a little radical if I remember correctly!

Mad Hatter said...

My father drove the car quickly over railroad tracks and I was born the next day. I'm sure that will be on an episode of Mad Men soon.
I'm so excited for you, Peeveme - in a matter of days, YOU ARE GOING TO HAVE A BABY!!!!
(And my verification word is perfect for baby thoughts: JOYMPLE!)
P.S. I gave you an award, by the way...:-)

Anonymous said...

You go girl!!! I hope that when it does come, it is smooth and sweet.

Best When Used By said...

Calculating statistics is a bit over my head, so can I just make a guess? I guess: Saturday. This Saturday. No reason, just a guess. Well, whenever it happens, I hope you have as easy a delivery as possible.

edie & ella said...

I'm glad it works for you because I fell asleep ... statistics flashbacks.....
can't wait to see pics.........

Anonymous said...

Ha! That is great, I love your attempt to control the situation (and totally understand!)

Soon! Very soon!